SEBaseball - Bubble Wrap
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Bubble Wrap

Someone is going to be really disappointed Monday. What had been referred to as a soft bubble for a month ordered P90X and came back ripped. Teams that began tournament week as solid teams are now wondering just far they slid.
There were four stolen bids this season with automatic bids going to teams that would not gone otherwise causing a conference to gain an extra bid. Meeting that criteria is Belmont in the Atlantic Sun (Stetson will also get in), Seton Hall (Connecticut), New Mexico (TCU), UALR (FIU will also get in). The Southern Conference could also meet that criterion should Elon get an invitation to join automatic qualifier Georgia Southern.
If we wanted, we could pick twenty potential bubble teams but in the interest of time, twelve are listed here. We will have room for seven of these teams. Go ahead, you are the committee. Make your selections …
Bubble Breakdown
LSU 36-20, pRPI #26, 5-11 (v25), 11-17 (v50), 18-18 (v100), 27-18 (v150), 12-3 (last 15), T9th in 1st rated conference, SOS #33, 7-11 (road rec), n/c SOS #94
Why they should be in: Played great down the stretch winning 12 of 15. Have series wins over bubble teams Ole Miss and at Mississippi State. Swept Cal State Fullerton. Great RPI rank.
Why they should be out: Finished ninth in their league going 13-17. Losing road record. Not much success against good teams other than Fullerton.
Mississippi State 34-23, pRPI #31, 6-15 (v25), 11-18 (v50), 16-21 (v100), 24-21 (v150), 10-5 (last 15), T6th in 1st rated conf, SOS #22, 10-9 (road rec), n/c SOS #168
Why they should be in: Was the sixth seed in SEC Tournament, winning road record, Great RPI rank. Played well late winning 10 of 15.
Why they should be out: Did nothing out of conference. Losing record against top 25/50/100.
Ole Miss 30-25, pRPI #41, 5-12 (v25), 8-19 (v50), 12-23 (v100), 23-25 (v150), 6-9 (last 15), T9th in 1st rated conf, SOS #23, 8-13 (road rec), n/c SOS #54
Why they should be in: Decent non-conference strength of schedule, won series from South Carolina. RPI rank is solid.
Why they should be out: Losing record vs RPI tiers (25/50/100/150). 13-17 in SEC play.
Jacksonville 36-22, pRPI #47, 3-4 (v25), 6-5 (v50), 19-15 (v100), 24-20 (v150), 10-5 (last 15), 2nd in 8th rated conf, SOS #56, 14-10 (road rec), n/c SOS #55
Why they should be in: Winning record vs top 50/100/150. Won 10 of last 15. Winning road record and decent strength of schedule
Why they should be out: RPI is in danger range. Can A-Sun get more than 2 bids?
Mercer 39-20, pRPI #54, 3-4 (v25), 7-8 (v50), 15-13 (v100), 20-20 (v150), 10-5 (last 15), 4th in 8th rated conf, SOS #132, 16-9 (road rec), n/c SOS #206
Why they should be in: Winning record vs top 100. Nice road record. Beat Jacksonville twice in A-Sun Tournament. Won 10 of last 15.
Why they should be out: Strength of schedule is not good. Finished fourth in A-Sun. Can A-Sun get more than 2 bids?
Troy 42-17 pRPI #50, 4-2 (v25), 5-4 (v50), 18-12 (v100), 25-13 (v150), 11-4 (last 15), 1st in 6th rated conf), SOS #146, 10-11 (road rec), n/c SOS #216
Why they should be in: Won Sun Belt regular season. Winning marks vs RPI tiers (25/50/100/150) including very impressive records vs top 100/150. Won 11 of last 15.
Why they should be out: Strength of schedule is woefully bad. RPI rank is in danger zone.
Dallas Baptist 38-17 pRPI #46, 5-3 (v25), 7-5 (v50), 11-9 (v100), 11-12 (v150), 11-4 (last 15), SOS #162, 13-9 (road rec), n/c SOS #159
Why they should be in: Got marquee wins. Winning records vs RPI tiers (25/50/100). Won 11 of last 15. Winning road record.
Why they should be out: RPI in danger zone. Strength of schedule is not strong.
Cal State Bakersfield 33-22 pRPI #53, 5-3 (v25), 8-10 (v50), 13-12 (v100), 14-19 (v150), 8-7 (last 15), SOS #78, 9-10 (road rec), n/c SOS #73
Why they should be in: Winning record vs top 25 and top 100; Decent SOS for independent; Geographic balance
Why they should be out: RPI is in danger zone; Losing record vs top 150
Elon 36-21 pRPI #49, 0-3 (v25), 2-6 (v50), 11-17 (v100), 20-19 (v150), 10-5 (last 15), 1st in 15th rated conf, SOS #75, 17-11 (road rec), n/c SOS #40
Why they should be out: Won SoCon regular season. Strong SOS; Playing well late with 10 wins in last 15. Strong road record.
Why they should be out: Losing marks vs top 25/50/100; RPI in danger zone; Conference is down this year
Kansas State 36-23 pRPI #43, 5-8 (v25), 10-14 (v50), 21-21 (v100), 21-21 (v150), 9-6 (last 15), 5th in 3rd rated conf, SOS #50, 10-11 (road rec), n/c SOS #219
Why they should be out: Finished 5th in B12; Played well late; Won series from bubble team Bakersfield; Beat Oklahoma twice in B12 Tournament
Why they should be out: Nothing much out of conference; No major resume strengths
Oregon 33-26-1 pRPI #58, 2-4 (v25), 9-11 (v50), 18-21 (v100), 23-21 (v150), 10-4-1 (last 15), 8th in 4th rated conf, SOS #46, 13-14-1 (road rec), n/c SOS #97
Why they should be out: Just swept Oregon State; Playing well now;
Why they should be out: Losing marks vs RPI tiers (25/50/100); 11-16 in Pac 10; RPI rank
California 31-20 pRPI #44, 1-8 (v25), 7-15 (v50), 16-16 (v100), 19-17 (v150), 7-8 (last 15), 6th in 4th rated conf, SOS #45, 12-9 (road rec), n/c SOS #114
Why they should be out: Good road record; 13-13 in Pac 10
Why they should be out: Poor showing vs top 25/50.
We have room for seven of these. I'll release mine with the final projections.