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Ranks and Ratings
- Slicing and Dicing Schedules and Results Since 2002
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Copyright 2009-13, Paul Kislanko.
the 2012 blog


Discretionary Scheduling in 2013

January 27, 2013

I noted last time that the recent trend toward a more connected schedule continues this year - with another schedule or two 57.7 percent of all team-pairs will be either opponents or opponents' opponents by the end of the regular season. We are benefitting from a continuing increase in the amount of inter-regional play, as seen from the following table.

Each cell contains the number of road games for teams from the region that identifies the row against teans from regions identified by the column heading (plus neutral site games for which the row-region is the home team.)
3080 gms Atlantic Central East Mideast Midwest Northeast South West Not1 Away
Atlantic   30 (+3) 82 (+8) 8 (+9) 6 (+3) 12 (+3) 127 (+7) 10 2 310
Central 29 (+1)   14 (+3) 20 (+5) 56 (+4) 0 (+3) 124 (+6) 49 (+3) 9 326
East 183 (+6) 58   55 (+21) 39 (+6) 80 (+27) 75 (+5) 42 (+2) 3 (+1) 603
Mideast 66 (+4) 56 (+2) 98 (+24)   123 (+13) 11 (+22) 131 (+3) 53 (+3) 6 615
Midwest 34 (+3) 40 (+4) 36 (+6) 104 (+13)   18 (+6) 49 (+5) 108 (+7) 2 (+1) 436
Northeast 126 (+3) 12 166 (+9) 43 (+7) 32 (+6)   53 (+2) 13 (+6) 4 482
South 79 (+5) 83 (+5) 21 (+5) 29 (+1) 24 (+3) 2   19 (+2) 0 278
West 9 (+1) 39 (+1) 8 (+1) 11 (+3) 78 (+10) 6 40 (+3)   0 210
Not1 8 38 14 (+2) 34 (+6) 23 (+2) 5 (+4) 9 4   149
Home: 534 356 439 304 381 134 608 298 26  

Although nearly three quarters of all interconference games are between teams from different regions, all those Atlantic-Central-South or East-Northeast-Mideast games don't contribute nearly so much as the West-not West games. However, about 57 percent of Western teams' non-conference games are against teams from other regions, and that is a Good Thing.

Follow this link for the same counts for all interconference pairs.

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First Look at 2013's Schedule

January 19, 2013

There are 298 teams in Division 1 this year, and D1Baseball.com has the schedules for 295 of them so far, so we can do some preliminary analysis. It looks like a pretty fun year!

Some random facts about the schedule:

  • The latest opening game is Yale's (vs Army in Tampa.)
  • The latest home-opener is North Dakota's (April 19th.
  • Alabama A&M will be the first team to play 10 games (their 10th is February 24th)
  • 16 teams will have played 10 games before March 1st.
  • The last team to reach 10 games does so on March 29th.

298 teams means there's 44,253 team-pairs. By the end of the regular season:

  • 57.6 percent of all team-pairs will be either opponents or opponents' opponents.
  • 228 teams (76.5%) will have more than half the field as an opponent or opponents' opponent.
  • The average number of games between opponents is 2.47 with an average of 21.77 opponents/team.
    (fewest is UConn's 1.70 game average and 33 opponents)
  • The games graph diameter will be 4, and at that distance there are 28,493.3 connections per team-pair.

2013 SOS Based upon Opponents' 2012 Ratings

It wouldn't be a D1 baseball season if Southern Cal didn't have the toughest schedule of any team in the field. For 2013 that's true even if you take the opponents' 2012 RPI values as the measurement. Ordering the results by non-conference opponents' (2012) strength, here are the 25 toughest by ISR:
Rank SOS Std_Dev #games Team 2012 ISR Conf Rank NC_SOS NC Std_Dev
12 110.500 7.2334 56 Cal State Fullerton 16 BigW 1 113.797 6.6224
9 111.832 7.2914 54 San Francisco 74 WCC 2 113.408 7.9512
15 110.196 6.8971 53 Hawaii 81 BigW 3 112.313 6.4005
34 107.978 9.2446 54 San Diego State 108 MW 4 112.287 7.8093
18 109.525 9.0585 56 Long Beach State 47 BigW 5 111.741 10.0924
11 110.843 7.5051 54 Portland 78 WCC 6 111.547 8.8490
1 114.854 7.7614 56 Southern California 75 P12 7 111.394 6.2383
16 110.011 7.5377 57 Cal State Northridge 117 BigW 8 111.262 7.4303
23 109.143 6.1592 54 Seattle 165 WAC 9 111.137 6.1960
24 109.118 7.0647 55 UC Irvine 55 BigW 10 110.936 7.0824
13 110.352 8.6967 51 Loyola Marymount 68 WCC 11 110.813 10.7329
20 109.238 7.4196 57 UC Santa Barbara 77 BigW 12 110.291 7.7251
17 109.568 6.4682 54 Pacific 193 BigW 13 110.193 7.5895
4 113.231 7.3818 60 Oregon 5 P12 14 110.126 6.1901
25 109.033 6.5936 54 UC Riverside 112 BigW 15 110.092 5.9748
2 113.745 10.2432 56 Washington 31 P12 16 109.715 8.2802
31 108.134 8.1711 53 Baylor 7 B12 17 109.659 8.3996
199 96.612 15.5347 56 Utah Valley State 54 GW 18 109.494 6.7468
19 109.244 7.8175 51 Pepperdine 23 WCC 19 109.470 9.3780
37 107.847 8.4683 54 San Jose State 143 WAC 20 109.267 10.2793
46 106.869 9.4271 54 Nevada-Las Vegas 136 MW 21 109.066 9.8198
60 105.951 9.5778 55 Nebraska 70 B10 22 109.027 8.3746
61 105.939 9.1474 53 Fresno State 71 MW 23 108.927 8.9568
41 107.338 9.6753 55 Texas State 64 WAC 24 108.848 12.3607
28 108.452 9.1056 52 Gonzaga 25 WCC 25 108.619 10.9803

There are no real surprises in that list, but the same list using opponents' 2012 RPI values is quite interesting.
Rank SOS Std_Dev #games Team 2012 RPI Conf Rank NC_SOS NC Std_Dev
40 0.53193 0.042184 53 Hawaii 81 BigW 1 0.55340 0.038443
44 0.53057 0.039303 56 Cal State Fullerton 25 BigW 2 0.55333 0.034744
42 0.53138 0.045514 56 Long Beach State 70 BigW 3 0.55059 0.046237
34 0.53535 0.036667 55 Jacksonville 222 ASUN 4 0.54666 0.045314
74 0.51934 0.046559 54 San Diego State 140 MW 5 0.54270 0.038408
1 0.55653 0.041300 56 Southern California 102 P12 6 0.54267 0.032813
35 0.53516 0.035076 53 Baylor 5 B12 7 0.54138 0.038543
43 0.53108 0.039527 56 Elon 52 SoCon 8 0.54113 0.048492
77 0.51895 0.037301 54 Sam Houston State 50 SLC 9 0.54080 0.037355
38 0.53250 0.036274 54 San Francisco 118 WCC 10 0.53906 0.039690
2 0.55439 0.035923 56 Georgia 55 SEC 11 0.53849 0.024496
39 0.53236 0.038200 54 Portland 126 WCC 12 0.53805 0.043104
71 0.51948 0.037447 56 Oral Roberts 94 SLC 13 0.53776 0.037704
53 0.52536 0.044294 55 Texas State 73 WAC 14 0.53751 0.050222
48 0.52802 0.033657 51 Pepperdine 30 WCC 15 0.53738 0.037875
57 0.52407 0.040614 55 UC Irvine 90 BigW 16 0.53616 0.042161
3 0.55211 0.046711 56 Florida 3 SEC 17 0.53422 0.055370
7 0.54737 0.040985 60 Oregon 10 P12 18 0.53404 0.031349
54 0.52492 0.035999 57 Cal State Northridge 159 BigW 19 0.53344 0.035413
58 0.52403 0.036148 57 UC Santa Barbara 132 BigW 20 0.53316 0.034732
47 0.52821 0.041402 51 Loyola Marymount 104 WCC 21 0.53207 0.049068
13 0.54550 0.041505 56 UCLA 1 P12 22 0.53102 0.036162
6 0.54803 0.041257 56 Florida State 2 ACC 23 0.53040 0.046391
46 0.52841 0.039651 55 Rice 20 CUSA 24 0.52958 0.043713
240 0.47070 0.072917 55 Bethune-Cookman 191 MEAC 25 0.52946 0.035152

Fully 60 percent of the RPI-based list is made up of teams from the Western region. Inter-regional scheduling just may have improved enough that the RPI is a meaningful rating. Oh, wait. They're not using it anymore...

The full list (ISR) and full list (RPI) include all teams as well as counts of home and away (road or neutral site) non-conference games.

Fun Factors

Closing today with a list of some of the good interconference games (series) to look forward to. It's sorted by week and a combination of how highly and closely -ranked the opponents were in 2012.
Date Game/Series
19-Feb Cal State Fullerton at Pepperdine
15-17 Feb Stanford at Rice
19-Feb Dallas Baptist at Rice
16-Feb Gonzaga vs Oregon State Palm Springs Tournament, Palm Springs, CA
15-17 Feb TCU at Mississippi
16-Feb Missouri State vs Sam Houston State Centurylink Bobcat Invitational, San Marcos, TX
15-16 Feb Kent State vs Virginia Tech UNCW Tournament, Wilmington, NC
19-Feb Florida at UCF
19-Feb California at Stanford
15-17 Feb Appalachian State at NC State
15-17 Feb Long Beach State at Vanderbilt
16-Feb Tulane at Texas State Centurylink Bobcat Invitational, San Marcos, TX
15-17 Feb Virginia at East Carolina
19-20 Feb Arizona at Long Beach State
17-Feb Louisville vs Purdue Big East/Big Ten Challenge, St. Petersburg, FL
19-Feb UT Arlington at Texas
15, 17 Feb Gonzaga vs Utah Valley Palm Springs Tournament, Palm Springs, CA
15-17 Feb Maryland at LSU
15-Feb Oregon State vs Utah Valley Palm Springs Tournament, Palm Springs, CA
19-Feb Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane
17-Feb Sam Houston State at Texas State Centurylink Bobcat Invitational, San Marcos, TX
15-17 Feb Baylor at UC Irvine
15-Feb Sam Houston State vs Tulane Centurylink Bobcat Invitational, San Marcos, TX
15-Feb Missouri State at Texas State Centurylink Bobcat Invitational, San Marcos, TX
17-Feb Missouri State vs Tulane Centurylink Bobcat Invitational, San Marcos, TX
17-Feb Nebraska at Southern California
19-Feb Loyola Marymount at Southern California
22-24 Feb UCLA at Baylor
28-Feb Arizona State vs Arkansas Coca-Cola Classic, Surprise, AZ
22-24 Mar Pepperdine at Texas A&M
22-23 Feb Purdue at Mississippi State Diamond Classic, Starkville, MS
26-Feb TCU at Dallas Baptist
22-24 Feb Cal State Fullerton at TCU
26-Feb Pepperdine at Baylor
24-Feb New Mexico vs Oklahoma Kleberg Bank College Classic, Corpus, Christi, TX
26-Feb Sam Houston State at Texas
23-24 Feb Samford at Mississippi State Diamond Classic, Starkville, MS
22, 24 Feb Purdue vs Samford Diamond Classic, Starkville, MS
22-Feb New Mexico State at East Carolina Keith LeClair Classic, Greenville, NC
22-24 Feb Kent State at San Diego (4)
23-Feb College of Charleston at Auburn Auburn Tournament, Auburn, AL
22-Feb College of Charleston vs Indiana State Auburn Tournament, Auburn, AL
26-27 Feb New Mexico State at NC State
24-Feb Indiana State at Auburn Auburn Tournament, Auburn, AL
22-24 Feb California at UC Irvine (4)
23-Feb California at UC Irvine
22-Feb Southeastern Louisiana at LSU LSU Tournament, Baton Rouge, LA
26-Feb UC Irvine at Loyola Marymount
26-27 Feb Utah Valley at Arizona
28-Feb San Diego at Coastal Carolina Caravelle Resort Tournament, Myrtle Beach, SC
23-Feb Kentucky at Coastal Carolina Caravelle Resort Baseball at the Beach, Myrtle Beach, SC
22-24 Feb Belmont at Georgia
2-Mar Arizona State vs Arkansas Coca-Cola Classic, Surprise, AZ
5-Mar Cal State Fullerton at San Diego
2-Mar Rice vs Texas A&M Houston College Classic, Houston, TX
3-Mar Texas A&M vs North Carolina Houston College Classic, Houston, TX
1-3 Mar Oregon at Cal State Fullerton
1-Mar North Carolina vs Rice Houston College Classic, Houston, TX
3-Mar Baylor vs Rice Houston College Classic, Houston, TX
1-Mar Arkansas vs Gonzaga Coca-Cola Classic, Surprise, AZ
1-3 Mar Cal Poly at Washington
6-Mar UCF at Miami, Florida
3-Mar Arizona State vs Gonzaga Coca-Cola Classic, Surprise, AZ
1-3 Mar Pepperdine at Oklahoma
1-3 Mar Miami, Florida at Florida
4-Mar California at Rice
2-Mar North Carolina vs California Houston College Classic, Houston, TX
1-Mar Baylor vs California Houston College Classic, Houston, TX
1-3 Mar New Mexico State at Wake Forest
6-Mar Sam Houston State at Rice
1-3 Mar Purdue at Samford
1,3 Mar South Carolina at Clemson
2-Mar Clemson vs South Carolina Greenville, SC
1-3 Mar Kent State at Louisville
5-6 Mar Southeastern Louisiana at Mississippi
7-9 Mar Nevada at Utah Valley
1-3 Mar Texas at Stanford
5-Mar UCLA at Long Beach State
5-Mar Oklahoma at UT Arlington
1-3 Mar St. John's at East Carolina
1-3 Mar Illinois State at Belmont
3-Mar NC State at Coastal Carolina Caravelle Resort Tournament, Myrtle Beach, SC
1-3 Mar Southern California at Fresno State
1-Mar Stony Brook at UNC Wilmington Hughes Brothers Challenge, Wilmington, NC
3-Mar San Diego vs Stony Brook Hughes Brothers Challenge, Wilmington, NC
12-Mar Florida State at Florida
8-10 Mar Texas A&M at Cal State Fullerton
8-10 Mar Vanderbilt at Oregon
8-10 Mar Washington at LSU
14-16 Mar Sam Houston State at Dallas Baptist
9-Mar Oklahoma at UCLA Dodgertown Classic, Los Angeles, CA
13-Mar New Mexico at Arizona State
12-13 Mar New Mexico State at Oklahoma
8-10 Mar Long Beach State at Arizona State
13-Mar Purdue at Louisville
12-Mar Tulane at Southeastern Louisiana
13-Mar Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane
12-13 Mar Appalachian State at Georgia
12-Mar Long Beach State at Loyola Marymount
8-10 Mar San Francisco at Missouri
19-Mar Dallas Baptist at Texas A&M
19-Mar Missouri State at New Mexico (2)
19-Mar Sam Houston State at Baylor
20-Mar Baylor at Sam Houston State
19-Mar Gonzaga at Washington State
19-Mar Coastal Carolina at Wake Forest
15-17 Mar Wichita State at Long Beach State
19-Mar TCU vs UT Arlington Arlington, TX
15-17 Mar Nebraska at UC Irvine
26-Mar Florida vs Florida State Jacksonville, FL
28-30 Mar Oregon State at San Diego
26-Mar Pepperdine at Cal Poly
26-Mar Dallas Baptist at TCU
22-24 Mar San Diego at Gonzaga
26-Mar Rice at Sam Houston State
22-24 Mar Cal State Fullerton at Long Beach State
26-Mar St. John's vs Stony Brook Flushing, NY
26-Mar Texas State at Texas
26-Mar Clemson at Georgia
27-Mar Georgia at Clemson
26-Mar South Carolina at College of Charleston
26-Mar UT Arlington at Texas A&M
2-Apr Cal State Fullerton at UCLA
2-Apr Dallas Baptist at Baylor
2-Apr UCF at Florida
1-Apr California at Stanford
1-Apr New Mexico at New Mexico State
3-Apr Indiana State at Purdue
2-Apr Gonzaga at Washington State
2-Apr Kentucky at Louisville
2-Apr NC State at East Carolina
9-Apr Florida at Florida State
9-Apr Oregon at Oregon State
9-Apr Mississippi vs Mississippi State Pearl, MS
5-7 Apr Washington at Pepperdine
9-Apr New Mexico at Arkansas
9-Apr Sam Houston State at Texas A&M
9-Apr College of Charleston at Coastal Carolina
9-Apr Purdue at Indiana State
9-Apr East Carolina at NC State
9-Apr UC Irvine at San Diego
9-Apr Texas State at Texas
9-Apr Georgia Tech at Georgia
16-Apr Cal State Fullerton at Pepperdine
16-Apr Texas A&M at Sam Houston State
17-Apr New Mexico State at New Mexico
16-Apr Washington State at Gonzaga
16-Apr Louisville at Kentucky
16-Apr Auburn at Samford
16-Apr TCU at UT Arlington
16-Apr College of Charleston at South Carolina
16-Apr UCLA at UC Irvine
16-Apr Coastal Carolina at North Carolina
16-Apr Southern California at Loyola Marymount
23-24 Apr Washington at Gonzaga
23-Apr Baylor at Dallas Baptist
23-Apr Cal Poly at California
23-Apr Oklahoma at Arkansas
24-Apr Coastal Carolina at College of Charleston
23-Apr Vanderbilt at Louisville
23-Apr Long Beach State at UCLA
23-Apr UT Arlington at Sam Houston State
23-Apr Georgia vs Georgia Tech Atlanta, GA
1-May Cal Poly at Pepperdine
30-Apr Oklahoma at Dallas Baptist
30-Apr Missouri State at Arkansas
30-Apr Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane
30-Apr UC Irvine at UCLA
30-Apr Loyola Marymount at Long Beach State
3-5 May UCF at Florida State
7-May Long Beach State at Pepperdine
8-May Samford at Auburn
8-May Georgia at College of Charleston
3-5 May Coastal Carolina at Georgia Tech
14-May UCLA at Cal State Fullerton
14-15 May Gonzaga at Oregon
14-May Dallas Baptist at Oklahoma
11-12 May Appalachian State at Gonzaga (3)
14-May Appalachian State at North Carolina
14-May Pepperdine at Long Beach State
15-May San Diego at UC Irvine
14-May UT Arlington at TCU
14-May Georgia at Georgia Tech
21-May Oregon at Oregon State

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